Abstract

From the demand side, this presentation will look at shrimp imports after the Covid lockdown. It will show the route to market via the importers, wholesalers, distributors and downstream into the market segments of food service, supermarket retail and online retail. Online retail has grown tremendously to nearly a 60% share in China, probably more than any other country in the world. Many tier-one cities can deliver within 5 hours of registering an order. However, branding and product recognition are critical in this segment for repeat business.

China’s market is not homogenous; it offers a market for many shrimp product types from HOSO, HLSO, PUD to butterfly, but the product type and size must match the market segment. The demand for quality, sustainability and traceability also varies. The future is about moving upwards in quality and away from soaking. The food service demand is also changing. Chain restaurants have moved from bulk packaging to small individual packaging to ensure consistency in the individual kitchen.

Global shrimp prices have dropped over the past 3 years, and this has affected China. Ecuador and new South American countries have increased export volumes to China. This higher supply has led to price discounting and consequently to poor market sentiment. In terms of price elasticity, the lower import prices have not cascaded to the retail level. We see that prices to the consumer have remained stable. It will take time for the supply chain to balance itself.

Consumer confidence has indeed dropped in China, and this is due to the slump in property prices. However, this does not mean that the capacity to spend has been reduced. Shrimp consumption and imports will continue, while the inventory will become more balanced along the supply chain. The view is that 2025 is a correction year while 2026 will see consumption growth again. China’s shrimp aquaculture and the local supply side will also be presented.